Mantic which claims to forecast global events emerges from stealth

A London-based startup, which claims to have developed AI-powered tech which can forecast world events, has come out of stealth, following a $4m pre-seed funding.

Called Mantic, the startup’s pre-seed funding round was led by London-based early stage VC Episode 1, with participation from VC tech investor DRW and several angel investors.

Mantic was founded by former Google DeepMind researcher Toby Shevlane and Ben Day, who holds a machine learning PHD from Cambridge University.

Mantic claims its tech can undertake what it is calling “judgmental forecasting”. It says its tech can rival elite superforecasters, individuals who are adept at using statistics to predict events.

“Mantic are building a cutting-edge AI system that can predict the complex world of human affairs,” the startup says.

The press release talks about its tech being helpful to business and political leaders, helping forecast events like supply chain disruptions, geopolitical shocks to predicting competitor moves.

Mantic says: "In the past, purely data-driven approaches to prediction in human affairs have not worked because both flexible reasoning and research are required to provide the most accurate prediction of the future. 

“Mantic is building a cutting-edge AI system that can predict the complex world of human affairs. Delivering these predictions at industrial scale will transform the quality of decision-making across business and policy.”

Mantic appears to be tapping into the popularity of prediction market players like Polymarket and Kalshi, which it mentions in its blog post.