The Emperor without clothes — Why do VC’s not deliver expected returns?

TempoCap venture partner Pierre Suhrcke looks into a number of factors of how and why VC’s fail to deliver expected returns, highlighting overvaluation and misaligned incentives.
The Emperor without clothes — Why do VC’s not deliver expected returns?

Venture capital has long been the lifeblood of innovation, providing startups with the essential funding they need to grow and scale operations. Yet, as we face ongoing uncertainty about the economy and interest rates, VC performance has been very disappointing. In this tough investment landscape, a number of challenges for VC funds have been brought to light and recent discussions within the investment community have raised questions about their effectiveness. It has become increasingly vital to investigate the ways in which their work must adapt if they will be able to produce good performance for their LPs.

Overvaluation and Misaligned Incentives

The overvaluation of start-ups is a particularly concerning trend in today’s VC funding world. The rush to invest in the next unicorn has often led to inflated valuations that are not grounded in reality. When startups are valued beyond their true potential, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to meet the expectations of their investors. These misaligned incentives between VCs and entrepreneurs can create tension, as the pursuit of growth at all costs clashes with building sustainable businesses. Ultimately, if startups are pressured to achieve astronomical growth targets by their VCs, they can divert their focus from building solid foundations, creating unsustainable practices and potential failure instead. 

Herd Mentality and Lack of Differentiation 

I believe there is a herd mentality within the VC industry, meaning the fear of missing out (FOMO) and groupthink can erode the ability of VC firms to make strategic investment decisions. When a high-profile investor backs a particular startup, it can trigger a chain reaction of other investors rushing to join in, often without thoroughly evaluating the startup's fundamentals and leading to a scenario where multiple VCs invest in the same startup and exacerbate the competition for the limited pool of successful ventures. Entire sectors become ‘hot’, causing an oversaturation of funding in those areas and consequently start-ups in less sought-after sectors struggle to secure funding, even if they have strong potential for long-term success.

The consequences of this behaviour are twofold: first, it can lead to a lack of diversity in investment portfolios, amplifying risks; second, it can inflate valuations, putting pressure on startups to deliver unrealistic growth targets. When these targets are not met, it can result in disappointing returns for investors and undermine the credibility of the VC industry. 

Short-Term Focus and High-Pressure Environments

VCs operate in an environment where quick returns are often expected. This short-term focus can influence investment decisions and lead to prioritising start-ups that promise rapid growth and early exits. A Harvard Business Review article by David Gornall and Ilya Strebulaev supports this argument by highlighting the trend of "premature scaling." Startups, under pressure to grow quickly, often expand their operations before they've established a solid customer base or proven their business model. This rush to scale can result in operational inefficiencies, wasted resources, and ultimately, failure.

The vital importance of support

Great returns don’t just result from the pressure to deliver. Meaningful post-investment support such as mentorship, guidance, and connections allow startups to thrive as much as financial backing. Through the ongoing sharing of resources and expertise, experienced VCs should allow their portfolio companies to navigate challenges and build the resilience to make strategic decisions well into the future.

Ultimately, the economic challenges faced by VCs and startups calls for a new way of thinking. While VC remains a critical source of funding for innovation, the industry must re-evaluate its practices to foster a more sustainable and supportive ecosystem for start-ups. For VCs to be a success, they must have the discipline and the confidence to stick to their principles, otherwise they risk falling into a herd mentality and continuing to deliver poor performance. 

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